Why a long-term mega deal for Tarik Skubal isn’t actually all that risky

The big prize of this free agent class is ace lefty and two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. We've seen and will continue to see predictions that he's going to land a deal of around 8-10 years and topping $400 million. The knee-jerk reaction to such prognostications in many corners will be that he won't possibly be "worth" that much and that such a deal would be a huge "risk" to the signing team.

Let's stop right there. I don't think it's all that risky. There's risk for the team on every contract, especially pitchers, of course, but in Skubal, the signing team is getting a surefire ace for several years.

Let's examine some of the reasons why such an enormous deal isn't actually that dangerous.

Since returning from surgery in 2023, Skubal has been absurdly good. Across his ages 26-29 seasons, he's made 103 starts and has gone 50-20 with a 2.47 ERA (169 ERA+), 0.92 WHIP and 757 strikeouts in 626 ⅓ innings. He's only walked 109, or 1.6 per nine innings. He rarely gets hit hard, he rarely gives up many runs, he strikes out a high number of hitters and rarely walks any. Simply, he's been…

Original source: https://www.cbssports.com/