Nailing your fantasy football draft isn’t just about finding the right players. It’s also about knowing whom to avoid.

Historically, a majority of top-performing running backs are early-round picks (more on this later). That means a whiff in those rounds can send your championship odds on Kalshi nosediving. Just ask the managers who drafted Saquon Barkley or Ashton Jeanty in the top 10 last year. Or even those who drafted Alvin Kamara in the top 40.

For this article, we’ll look at the top five performers at the position from each of the last 10 years, identify common trends and highlight those who don’t meet the benchmarks. This should give us a better idea of which backs have questionable ceilings.

An important note before we dive in: This is not about making predictions. Instead, we’re identifying players to avoid based on historical trends and benchmarks.

Fantasy football running back trends

Note: All fantasy scoring and ADP data are from full PPR formats.

Of the 50 top-five running back finishes over the last 10 years, just four came from players with a positional ADP (average draft position) of RB24 or later. As a result, this article will focus on the top 23 running backs in current ADP.

• 381 – Not a single top-five running back from the last 10 years totaled more than 381 regular-season touches the year before.
• 32 – No back age 32 or older has finished inside the top five since Walter Payton’s RB3 finish in 1985.
• 6 – Just six rookies have racked up top-five finishes over the last decade. The last first-year runner to accomplish that feat was Najee Harris in 2021.
• 0.89 – In our sample, no player averaged fewer than 0.89 fantasy points per target in the preceding season. Given the strong correlation between running back fantasy production and pass-catching, this is a key indicator.
• 0.62 – Only three running backs finished in the top five over the last decade after averaging less than 0.62 fantasy points per touch in the previous season. Efficiency matters.
• 41% – Of the 44 non-rookie top-five finishers in our sample, only two had a rushing success rate of 41% or lower.
• 54 – Scoring upside is key to fantasy production (I know, #BREAKINGNEWS). In the season before their top-five performance, only three of the 44 backs scored less frequently than once every 54 touches.

Running backs to fade in fantasy football

• Christian McCaffrey (3.2 ADP) – As we noted last year, running backs who carry a heavy workload tend to experience a massive drop in production the following season. It was a cautionary tale for Saquon Barkley, who finished as the RB14 last year despite an RB2 ADP. McCaffrey had 413 regular season touches in 2025, 32 more than any top-five finisher in our sample had the previous season. He’s also two years older than Barkley was last season. It’s also worth noting that CMC has eclipsed 330 regular season totes twice in his career, appearing in just three and four games, respectively, the following season.
• Ashton Jeanty (6.6 ADP) – More than 90% of all top-five backs from the last decade posted better marks than Jeanty in each of these categories: rushing success rate, yards per touch, yards per target, and yards per attempt. Despite entering last season with an ADP of 5.5, Jeanty ranked just 15th in fantasy points per game among running backs.
• Derrick Henry (11.2 ADP) – While Henry is a unique beast, no running back his age has had a top-five season at the position in more than 40 years. The 32-year-old’s RB8 finish last year looks great, though it’s worth remembering that one-third of his production came during the fantasy playoffs. That’s why Henry ranked among the bottom 20 players whose fantasy teams advanced to the playoffs.
• Jeremiyah Love (13.2 ADP) – As noted above, only six rookie backs have managed top-five finishes over the last decade. Of those six players, Saquon Barkley and the Giants had the lowest projected team win total at seven. Love and the Cardinals currently have a projection of just 4.5. The Notre Dame product is also on a roster that includes James Conner, Tyler Allgeier and Trey Benson. None of that bodes well for his upside case, nor does the fact that the Cardinals are projected to score the second-fewest points in 2026.
• Javonte Williams (16.0 ADP) – None of the top-five backs from the last decade posted a yards-per-target mark lower than 4.4. Javonte’s was just 2.7 last year. Williams also averaged 0.85 fantasy points per target, lower than any top-five finisher’s mark in the preceding season in our sample.
• Breece Hall (16.2 ADP) – Talent isn’t the question with Hall; environment is. The 25-year-old scored just once per 55 touches last year, a big reason why he failed to tally double-digit PPR points in half his contests. Given that the Jets are currently projected to score the fewest points in the league in 2026, it’s fair to be concerned about Hall’s upside.
• Bucky Irving (20.4 ADP) – Bucky falls in the bottom 10% of our sample in each of the following categories: rushing success rate, yards per attempt, and fantasy points per touch. In PPR leagues, more than half of Irving’s 2025 production came in the passing game. The Bucs’ signing of Kenneth Gainwell, who finished fourth at the position in receptions last season, doesn’t bode well for Bucky’s fantasy ceiling.
• Quinshon Judkins (21.2 ADP) – Judkins falls in the bottom 10% of our 44-player sample in seven categories: rushing success rate, receiving success rate, yards per attempt, yards per touch, yards per target, fantasy points per reception and fantasy points per touch. Yikes. While Judkins might be more talented than his efficiency metrics suggest, the environment is brutal. The only teams projected to score fewer points than the Browns this season are the Jets and Cardinals.