Mary Peltola is an Alaskan, a Democrat, a former member of Congress, and by recent polls, the leading candidate in the Alaska Senate race – a state President Donald Trump carried three times. 

Peltola is vying to oust incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan from his Senate seat, and the polls say she has a chance in November. An Aug. 11 Alaska Survey Research poll reported that Peltola held a 1.6 percentage point edge over Sullivan. A New York Times/Siena poll in late June put Sullivan 2 points ahead, and an Alaska Survey Research poll in April gave Peltola a 7-point lead. 

Democrats hope to flip the seat in the midterms to shrink – or take over – the Republican majority in Congress’ upper chamber.

On Tuesday, Aug. 18, Alaska voters will head to the poll in nonpartisan primaries – a relatively newer system in the state, enacted when voters passed a ballot initiative in 2020. The top four contenders, which Peltola and Sullivan are almost sure to be among, will head to the general election in November, where ranked-choice voting is used.

Political analyst Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics said that with the state’s Republican lean shrinking under Trump and Peltola’s overperformance in 2024 (meaning she got more votes than former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat on the top of the ticket), the seat is a now a toss-up. 

Fourteen other candidates are on the primary ballot, including another man by the name of Dan Sullivan, who will remain on the ballot after a federal judge and the Alaska Supreme Court ruled against requests by Sen. Dan Sullivan’s team to remove it.

An Alaska Survey Research poll in March showed Sullivan and Peltola leading the remaining candidates by huge margins. Independent Sid Hill brought in 3.3% of the projected primary vote, followed by Republican James Ryan at 2.9%.

Who is Mary Peltola?

Peltola is not new to running for Congress: She won two elections in 2022 to be Alaska’s sole member of the House of Representatives. First she won a special election to serve temporarily after the death of Republican Rep. Don Young. Then she won the 2022 general election but lost by 2.4 percentage points to now-Rep. Nicholas Begich, a Republican, in 2024. Trump carried Alaska by just over 13 points in that same election.

As a Yup’ik Alaska Native, she was the first Alaska Native member of Congress and first woman representing the state in the House. She would be the first Alaska Native to serve in the Senate if she won this fall. Her campaign centers on some typical Democratic talking points like “affordability,” but she also tacks to the center by supporting Alaskan fisheries and oil and gas drilling in the state rather than calling to restrict them for environmental reasons.

“She is a Democrat, but she’s sort of a different type of Democrat than sort of the national profile of Democrats because she supports energy projects here and oftentimes kind of connects herself to Don Young, who was our 50-year representative in the state, and he was a Republican,” Brandon Boylan, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, told USA TODAY. 

Joseph Warren, a political scientist at the University of Alaska, Anchorage, echoed that same sentiment, saying Peltola “separated herself from the national brand” of Democrats.

“She also has spoken very strongly on issues in Alaska like fisheries that don’t really map onto conventional ideological categories in the Lower 48,” Warren said.

Peltola’s campaign championed her as “someone who will fix the rigged system in DC, lower costs, and put Alaska first” in a statement to USA TODAY, but Sen. Dan Sullivan’s campaign spokesperson, Nate Adams, slammed her never having “got a single bill signed into law” when she served in Congress.

“The choice is clear, and Alaskans made their choice about Mary Peltola two years ago when they fired her,” Adams said. 

Warren predicted that Sullivan is “more likely to win than not” because the state tends to vote for Republicans and Sullivan is a fairly typical Alaska Republican. Incumbents also tend to have an upper hand.

Alaska doesn’t always vote Republican

Sullivan’s 2014 win ousted Democratic former Sen. Mark Begich, who served only one term. The state’s other Senate seat has been held by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski since 2002. 

“Of course, Alaska votes Republican consistently in presidential elections, and that makes it seem like a much more conservative state than it actually is,” Warren said.

Murkowski is Republican, but she is known to break ranks with her party. In August, she voted against confirming Trump’s nomination for attorney general, Todd Blanche. In her reelection bid in 2010, Murkowski lost the Republican primary (the state still had partisan primaries at this time) to another Republican, Joe Miller, but she ultimately won the general election as a write-in candidate.

“There’s a reason why Lisa Murkowski is a moderate Republican in this state that frequently challenges Trump,” Boylan said.

Boylan called Peltola’s brand of Democrat “Alaska contextualized” and said the state has a “strong libertarian spirit,” referring to the small-government ideology. 

“Many Alaskans are willing to overlook the party affiliation for the community connections and engagement” by candidates, Boylan told USA TODAY. “And that’s why you sometimes see Democrats and independents win in these elections.” 

LaVon Ihrig, an Alaska voter, shared a similar sentiment with USA TODAY. 

“In talks with family and friends, world news is not really affecting Alaskans’ opinions at the poll, but instead what is affecting our paychecks and jobs here in Alaska,” said Ihrig, 54, of Wasilla. “I know that is what I’m focused on, and I do not care about parties right now.” 

Ihrig said in a Facebook comment that she wants “to see new blood” and will not be voting for anyone who has held office before. 

“Another reason people are leaning left is the price of gas, heating oil and natural gas,” said Randi Baker, 39, an Alaska voter from Eagle River. “I personally just got a $500 settle-up bill from my natural-gas provider, and their excuse was that prices have gone up.” 

Alaska has the highest per capita energy expenses of any state because of its cold winters and the dispersed population needing to travel long distances, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Baker is a former Democrat, now independent. He said the only reason Alaska is Republican “is the oil companies and their employees and some of the military.” 

Boylan said the rising price of oil amid the Iran war contributes to Trump’s low national approval rating − 40%, according to a Marquette Law School poll released Aug. 5 − and has major effects in Alaska.

An Alaska Survey Research poll reported in March that 36.3% of Alaska voters approved of Sullivan (another 17% were not sure), compared with a 38.1% Alaska approval rating of Trump in the same poll. About 52% of respondents said they voted for Trump in 2024.

“Alaskans, like a lot of Americans, are feeling rising cost of living and economic pinch, and economic factors are the dominant factors that influence elections,” Boylan said. Sullivan is a staunch supporter of Trump, which could hurt the incumbent, he said.

Alaska Natives are like a ‘third party’

The Alaska Native population makes up almost 16% of the state, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 data, and Peltola and Sullivan both have endorsements from Native Alaskan associations or groups. 

Peltola’s 2022 win and Murkowski’s 2010 write-in victory were largely a result of Alaska Federation of Natives endorsements, Warren said. The organization has yet to endorse a candidate in the 2026 Senate race, and it could come after its October convention.

The organization is not “ideological in the sense of left or right,” said Warren, who pointed to their endorsements of Democrats and Republicans alike. “They’re supporting the interests of Alaska Natives and Bush, Alaska,” an area where many Alaskan Natives live.

USA TODAY reached out to the Alaska Federation of Natives but did not hear back before publication.

Peltola is from Bethel in the Bush area of the state, and before her first stint in Congress, she was a leader in the communities as a Bethel City Council member and judge on the Orutsararmuit Native Council Tribal Court.

“She’s a leader among Indigenous communities here in the state of Alaska,” Boylan said. “That said, I don’t think that’s enough. I think she has to campaign hard in all areas of the state.”