CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate race

October 18, 2026 / 9:00 AM EDT / CBS News

The Texas Senate race is tight — essentially tied — and now all about…turnout.

Republican Ken Paxton benefits from the state's overall Republican leanings, while Democrat James Talarico is boosted by voters' economic concerns and higher perceptions of personal character to serve as senator.

Talarico's standing is helped by more Democrats saying they'll definitely vote. That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs. If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.

The bulk of Paxton's voters are backing him either because he's the GOP nominee or to oppose Talarico, and because they want to support President Trump.

Some of the economic headwinds facing Republicans nationally are showing up here. The cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say they've been negatively affected by higher prices. Among these voters, Talarico enjoys a sizable lead over Paxton.

And more see Talarico as having the right character to serve as senator.

Personal qualities matter far more to Talarico's backers than to Paxton's.

Talarico gets 5% of those who identify as Republicans.

On a wider scale, he draws 9% of people who…

Original source: https://www.cbsnews.com/entertainment/