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Democrats gain ground on Republicans in 3 key Texas statewide races
Mateo Rosiles
The statewide races Republicans have led all year in Texas are getting closer — and in one of them, the Democrat has pulled ahead.
An Aug. 7 poll from Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School showed that Democratic candidates have gained ground since June in the races for governor and attorney general, while pulling ahead in the lieutenant governor races.
This comes after a Texas Southern University (TSU) poll released three days earlier found Republicans still holding comfortable leads in those same races, a split that shows how unsettled the November ballot remains.
The August Texas Pulse poll was conducted July 27-30 by ReconMR for the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. It surveyed 619 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points. Respondents were 36% Republican, 33% independent and 29% Democratic.
Here’s where the races for governor, U.S. Senate, lieutenant governor and attorney general stand, and what other recent polls are saying.
Gina Hinojosa closes Texas governor race against Greg Abbott to a 1-point difference
The Aug. 7 poll from Texas Pulse showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 1 percentage point — 46% to 45%. That is a 5-point shift from Texas Pulse’s June poll, which showed Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 43%.
“The governor’s race looks much more competitive than it did in June, suggesting that Democrats could haveopportunities in several statewide contests,” Kirby Goidel, a Texas A&M political science professor, said. “Atthe same time, these races are still taking shape. Governor Abbott is well-known to nearly all Texan likelyvoters who give him near breakeven favorability and job performance ratings. On the other hand, many voters are still forming opinions about Gina Hinojosa.”
This poll comes days after an Aug. 4 poll from TSU showed the gap in the race had widened with Abbott (49%) leading Hinojosa (43%) by 6 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 5% undecided.
However, a July 28 poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) showed Hinojosa trailing Republican Abbott by 3 percentage points.
Looking at June polling data, a June 30 New York Times poll showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 51% to 44%, and a June 22 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Abbott ahead, 47% to 40%, the same 7-point margin.
Vikki Goodwin leads Dan Patrick by 2 points in Texas lieutenant governor poll
Days before the Texas Pulse Poll, an Aug. 4 TSU poll showed Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (46%) leading Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (39%) by 7 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Anthony Cristo and 12% undecided.
However, the new Aug. 7 Texas Pulse poll showed Goodwin leading Patrick 48% to 46%, a complete flip from the Texas Pulse June poll, which showed Patrick (49%) leading Goodwin (44%) by 5 percentage points.
“Despite the fact that a majority of likely voters, 56%, still do not know enough about Vikki Goodwin to form an opinion, she appears to hold a narrow lead over Dan Patrick,” Goidel said. “That suggests many voters are making decisions based primarily on the broader political context and party cues rather than the candidates themselves.”
If Goodwin wins, she would be the first woman to hold the position of lieutenant governor in Texas.
Nathan Johnson cuts Mayes Middleton lead to 2 points in Texas attorney general poll
This poll is slightly different from the July 28 TPOR poll, which showed Middleton and Johnson in a dead heat — 39% to 38% with 18% undecided. However, the TSU Aug. 4 poll showed that Middleton (46%) leads Johnson (41%) by 5 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Tom Oxford and 10% undecided.
The TSU gap is the same as the first post-runoff poll from TPOR in May, with Middleton leading Johnson 44% to 39%, with 13% still undecided. A June UT/Texas Politics Project poll held the same 5-point margin — 41% to 36% — with Middleton leading.
What do recent Texas Senate polls show?
Texas Pulse’s Aug. 7 poll showed 47% of likely Texas voters plan to support Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, while 43% support Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, within the poll’s 4.7-percentage-point margin of error.
The Aug. 4 poll from TSU showed Talarico (47%) leading Paxton (45%) by 2 percentage points — within the poll’s 2.83-percentage-point margin of error.
This comes after a Fox News poll, released July 30, showed Talarico leading Paxton by 3 percentage points, 51% to 48%, and a Texas Public Opinion Research poll on July 28 showed Talarico also leading Paxton by 5 percentage points, 45% to 40%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
Original source: https://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/

