El Niño could cause 451,000 more heat-related deaths compared to normal year, group says. Map shows areas at risk.

September 23, 2026 / 10:58 AM EDT / CBS News

An estimated 451,000 more people could die as a result of excessive heat in the first nine months of the current El Niño compared with a typical year, according to a report from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.

"That's on top of the impacts from droughts, wildfires and flooding expected from hotter temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns as this El Niño could become the strongest on record," the research hub said in a news release Wednesday.

Countries across the Global South are forecast to see the greatest impacts, with Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad expected to record more than 65,000 heat-related deaths combined. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia are expected to record close to 40,000 deaths collectively, while Brazil and India could also see high death tolls, according to researchers.

The projected global toll "is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives," Michael Greenstone, a cofounder of the Climate Impact Lab, said in a statement.

El Niño is a climate pattern…

Original source: https://www.cbsnews.com/entertainment/