Gov. Greg Abbott faces growing challenge in Texas governor’s race

The Texas governor's race is starting to look less safe for Republicans, with two election forecasters moving it toward a toss-up as polling trends edge toward Democrats.

Fox News updated its power rankings on Sept. 22 for the 2026 midterm elections and shifted the race between Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

The news outlet cited data center construction's impact on resources and residents' concerns as a top issue for Texans as they head to the polls on Nov. 3.

This movement also comes after RealClearPolitics on Sept. 17, a polling data aggregator, moved the race between Abbott and Hinojosa from Republican leaning to a toss up.

The data aggregator shows that since April 29, 2026, Hinojosa has cut Abbott's average poll lead from 7 percentage points down to 2.2 percentage points as of Sept. 22.

A month ago, the Cook Political Report moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" for several reasons—mainly because Abbott wasn't spending much money on attack ads at the time.

This shift follows a recent poll released by Texas Southern University released on Sept. 22 shows that Abbott leads Hinojosa by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%.

Original source: https://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/