Rams, Packers, Chargers, Patriots: Which Week 1 losses should scare us most?

Week 1 is built for overreactions, and this year gave us a lot to work with.

After a busy offseason, the Rams entered 2026 with borderline unrealistic Super Bowl expectations and promptly lost by 20 points to the 49ers. The Packers were cruising against the Vikings only to lose by 17. The Chargers, favored by more than a touchdown at home, lost by 12 to Arizona. New England kept things close, but a 13-10 loss to Seattle and three Drake Maye interceptions left lingering questions about the franchise quarterback who struggled through last postseason.

So which losses should actually worry us?

To find out, we went all the way back to 2015 to look at every Week 1 loss by a team that entered the season in our contender pool — the top 12 in preseason Super Bowl odds. That gave us 53 historical losses to compare with what happened over the rest of the season.

The biggest takeaway might also be the most reassuring: If your team was supposed to be good before Week 1, getting blown out wasn't much worse than a close loss. What mattered much more was how the team played.

A Week 1 loss matters.

Original source: https://www.cbssports.com/