The factor complicating election polls and witnesses recall Wichita soccer tragedy: Morning Rundown

Why election surveys come with an extra layer of uncertainty. Witnesses recall the horrific scene as a truck plowed through a youth soccer game in Kansas. And inside the silent growth of Flock cameras.

With Democrats favored to win the House and state-level polls showing the Senate within the party’s reach, turnout remains the biggest unknown that will decide what kind of election we have.

Republicans are hoping the polls this year are underestimating their support, which has happened in the past. But no one can know for sure who will turn out until after votes are counted — polls aren’t predictions, only snapshots in time.

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Kornacki analyzes new Decision Desk poll on midterm enthusiasm

National surveys can vary based on how pollsters identify a population that doesn’t yet exist: the “likely voter.” Depending on how we choose to identify likely voters, Democrats have anywhere between a 14- and 4-point advantage over Republicans when it comes to control of Congress.

Each firm has its own method, but all likely voter polls rely on two factors: letting the voters tell us…

Original source: https://www.nbcnews.com/business